Hiding Russia’s Weakness

The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures.

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Latest from ISW

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2025

May 31, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian officials' public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia maintains wider territorial goals in Ukraine beyond the four oblasts that Russia has illegally declared as annexed. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov told Kremlin newswire TASS on May 31 that Ukraine risks losing Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv cities if Ukraine refuses a peace settlement and claimed that every day that Ukraine delays a diplomatic solution to the war worsens the conditions for Ukraine.

Iran Update, May 30, 2025

May 30, 2025 - ISW Press

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conducted two attacks in late May 2025 targeting transitional government forces in eastern Suwayda Province, demonstrating that ISIS retains a presence along ground lines of communication (GLOC) between the central Syrian desert and southern Syria.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 30, 2025

May 30, 2025 - ISW Press

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the US Golden Dome space defense project for undermining global stability, despite the fact that the PRC has similarly invested in developing its military capabilities in space. Russia and North Korea issued similar criticisms, and altogether, space programs from these three countries may deny US access to space and space capabilities.

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update May 30, 2025

May 30, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian recruiters continue to offer Russian recruits low-quality and ineffective military training before deploying them to Ukraine. A Russian military observer visited a Moscow Military District (MMD) training center and reported on May 18 that Russian contract servicemen undergo only a week-long basic military training and spend another two weeks in training centers in occupied Ukraine.

Iran Update, May 29, 2025

May 29, 2025 - ISW Press

A US journalist reported on May 29 that Iran and the United States are trying to reach a "political framework text" before the next International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting on June 9 and 10. CTP-ISW cannot verify this report, although Iran may calculate that reaching an interim deal with the United States before the meeting would delay or prevent snapback sanctions.

Africa File, May 29, 2025: M23 Rebels Escalate Offensive and Arrest Campaign in North Kivu

May 29, 2025 - ISW Press

M23 has intensified its offensive operations against pro-Congolese government fighters in North Kivu province in recent weeks. M23 seeks to clear parts of Rutshuru district of these fighters and prevent attacks on the rebel group’s positions and logistic routes. M23 has separately conducted a large-scale effort to demographically reshape areas that it controls in North Kivu province.