Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
May Survey: Inflation Expectations Decrease Across the Three Horizons; Labor Market Outlook Improves
  • Median inflation expectations decreased at all three horizons in May. One-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.4 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent, three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.2 ppt to 3.0 percent, and five-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.1 ppt to 2.6 percent.
  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 ppt to 2.7 percent in May, while mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—dropped 3.3 ppt to 40.8 percent, remaining well above the trailing twelve-month average of 37.7 percent.
  • Households’ median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3 ppt to 3.0 percent. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent since August 2023.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.5 ppt to 14.8 percent. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased by 0.1 ppt to 18.3 percent.



For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations Decline; Labor Market Expectations Improve
By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Statement. You can learn more about how we use cookies by reviewing our Privacy Statement.   Close