US recession in 2025?
$5,561,066 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$5,561,066
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (773)
Top Holders
Activity
Related
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doomer7860
2h ago
so free imo lmao
e2h3g4
23h ago
Hello, Can someone lend me a dollar? I will try to avoid paying taxes to the state, plus, I'll return it to anyone who needs it in the future. Win Win Win situation.
moneymakingmachi...
22h ago
fuck you
Greyo
23h ago
h
7rzG4y9M9ub
1d ago
and guess what, world health organization approved the new pandemic treaty, interesting...
Oxymirin
20h ago
And all this to cover up for flat earth. Sick
7rzG4y9M9ub
1d ago
hi, i bought some yes shares, i ve read in the news tha the west coast ports are not doing that great, no more china stuff received, is it true?
7rzG4y9M9ub
1d ago
https://katv.com/news/local/west-coast-ports-see-cargo-decline-amid-145-tariff-hike-truckers-struggle-for-loads-china-trump-biden-administration-harvey-beech-shannon-everett-arkansas-trucking-united-co-owners-doubling-available-foreign-truck-drivers-long-beach-los-angeles-thirty
dumiz
1d ago
tariff 30% now
hifumi
2d ago
haha
Anonymous2019
2d ago
Cum se retrag banii?
justshift
2d ago
mergi la sectiunea sell si vinzi
justshift
2d ago
dupa mergi la vithdrav si da i copy paste la o adresa de primere de usdc pe reteaua Polygon
WhatIsGoingON
3d ago
Why can't I buy??? I want to profit from my own country's mistakes!!
Davide0440
2d ago
you need to bet at least 1$
WhatIsGoingON
2d ago
it says US is in the restricted countries list
twitchmohsen
3d ago
Tip me for a good luck spell from my spell book
onafets
4d ago
For the first time in its history, Moodys has downgraded the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA1.
doomer7860
2h ago
No is so free u understand
onafets
4d ago
Moody's strips the U.S. government of top credit rating, saying presidents and lawmakers have failed to reverse rising debts.
Lazertuiyope
5d ago
is this the freeest money in the world ?
Martymchigh
6d ago
Bloomberg’s Augusta Saraiva: “US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.”
Crazykekbr
6d ago
For those betting on NO. Just check the top holder of Yes.
mekanical
6d ago
Looks like hes down more than 15k on this bet. Can't win em all. Once we get the positive q2 print i would be surprused if this market stayed above 25%.
DonaldEnjoyer
6d ago
The top yes holder is literally a well known scammer whose only claim to fame is having a good model for predicting temperature markets lol
TIP-JAR-GUY
6d ago
NO TO THE MOON, economy will boom soon
Davide0440
6d ago
Don't worry guys! Buy more No's! https://x.com/Barchart/status/1922822363617415236
KnureKnume
7d ago
I think everyone should buy YES. Trump is doing a very bad job and the U.S will be in a Great Depression very soon!!!!
Joran
7d ago
How does the bet resolve if they say something like partial or minor recession?
Davide0440
6d ago
it's still a recession
Morra
7d ago
It's not about predicting the future; it's about seeing the patterns. Q1 GDP already dipped negative. Tariffs are a lead weight on growth. Consumer confidence? Rock bottom. Manufacturing is shrinking. The dominos are already falling. Buying YES isn't a gamble; it's acknowledging the inevitable
Davide0440
8d ago
The US is heading for a default !! This is free money for everybody with eyes on the DATA https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1922352190812774897
youregodamnright
8d ago
@PowerOfAntichrist gay
pompidom
7d ago
Yup he talks too much about dick and butt. Should have known that anyone wearing that robe was gay.
KnureKnume
8d ago
PowerOfAntichrist is the type of loser that you can’t even believe could exist. Lives a meaningless life and is desperate for any attention, but nobody will give it to him as he has no positive human traits. He screams out "please someone listen to me" nobody does. He now finds himself on one of the few places on the internet where no matter how worthless you are, the website will not ban you. His comments are ignored over and over. "maybe this is the one that will make someone pay attention to me" he thinks but to no avail. BUT, we have a solution. Just like in every other avenue in his worthless life, we can press the holders square, and this piece of human dog shit disappears forever. He is the perfect example of failed parenting. If you choose to make babies, it is your responsibility to make sure that they are not so ugly and repulsive that this behavior is their only outlet. So in conclusion… ugly stupid people, you have to stop having sex.
ChinaBoy
8d ago
Of course no
Mephiston
9d ago
lmao you realize that this tariff pause will cause another glut of imports and thus another bad print, right?
TrumpDaddy88
9d ago
Liberals BTFOED
DonaldEnjoyer
8d ago
I bet you have a bunch of no shares on a different account.
DonaldEnjoyer
7d ago
I wasn't employing logic I was making a bet. That's what the site is for.
clarro
9d ago
Never fall for the trap of thinking the stock market is a lead indicator for the economy...
KnureKnume
9d ago
PowerOfAntichrist is the type of loser that you can’t even believe could exist. Lives a meaningless life and is desperate for any attention, but nobody will give it to him as he has no positive human traits. He screams out "please someone listen to me" nobody does. He now finds himself on one of the few places on the internet where no matter how worthless you are, the website will not ban you. His comments are ignored over and over. "maybe this is the one that will make someone pay attention to me" he thinks but to no avail. BUT, we have a solution. Just like in every other avenue in his worthless life, we can press the holders square, and this piece of human dog shit disappears forever. He is the perfect example of failed parenting. If you choose to make babies, it is your responsibility to make sure that they are not so ugly and repulsive that this behavior is their only outlet. So in conclusion… ugly stupid people, you have to stop having sex.
KnureKnume
8d ago
You speak like a victim of sexual trauma. Very sad stuff. I hope you find some healing.
KnureKnume
8d ago
Yikes!
aenews2
9d ago
38c is kinda crazy
TipMeCash
9d ago
please just ONE dollar dawg
tungtungtungtung...
9d ago
Trumpie betrayed his MAGAs...
Pythagoras
9d ago
Why in the world has this price dropped with no signs of tariff relief? Just because stock prices rebounded?
Slowroasted
9d ago
and why do you think the stock prices rebounded....
DonaldEnjoyer
9d ago
PowerOfAntichrist is the type of loser that you can’t even believe could exist. Lives a meaningless life and is desperate for any attention, but nobody will give it to him as he has no positive human traits. He screams out "please someone listen to me" nobody does. He now finds himself on one of the few places on the internet where no matter how worthless you are, the website will not ban you. His comments are ignored over and over. "maybe this is the one that will make someone pay attention to me" he thinks but to no avail. BUT, we have a solution. Just like in every other avenue in his worthless life, we can press the holders square, and this piece of human dog shit disappears forever. He is the perfect example of failed parenting. If you choose to make babies, it is your responsibility to make sure that they are not so ugly and repulsive that this behavior is their only outlet. So in conclusion… ugly stupid people, you have to stop having sex.
TipMeCash
9d ago
ur still doing ts?
Korne
9d ago
lmao if you took time to post that, they definitely triggered / influenced you enough
KnureKnume
9d ago
Holding YES here is just giving your money away.
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