US recession in 2025?
$4,889,823 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$4,889,823
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (743)
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KnureKnume
33m ago
PowerOfAntichrist is the type of loser that you can’t even believe could exist. Lives a meaningless life and is desperate for any attention, but nobody will give it to him as he has no positive human traits. He screams out "please someone listen to me" nobody does. He now finds himself on one of the few places on the internet where no matter how worthless you are, the website will not ban you. His comments are ignored over and over. "maybe this is the one that will make someone pay attention to me" he thinks but to no avail. BUT, we have a solution. Just like in every other avenue in his worthless life, we can press the holders square, and this piece of human dog shit disappears forever. He is the perfect example of failed parenting. If you choose to make babies, it is your responsibility to make sure that they are not so ugly and repulsive that this behavior is their only outlet. So in conclusion… ugly stupid people, you have to stop having sex.
PowerOfAntichris...
3h ago
"US grants asylum to 54 white Afrikaner South Africans, reports say. Donald Trump has directed officials to grant refugee status to Afrikaners who he claims suffer discrimination" IMPORTING THE APARTHEID! HARDCORE FOREIGN RACISTS!
Krsnameena
5h ago
Please guys anyone can give me 90 cents ? 😭 then i could also place 1 dollar bet 😭
PowerOfAntichris...
3h ago
EAT SHIT AND DIE
PowerOfAntichris...
21h ago
WOKE = ANYTHING BUT NAZISM
PowerOfAntichris...
21h ago
"This afternoon acting DC US Atty Ed Martin was spit on by a psychotic lib during our interview," stated Newsmax's Rob Schmitt, who had been conducting the interview when it happened. "Hope she’s ready for a nice stretch in jail." NAZIS GETS SPIT ON! SAVING AMERICA ONE NAZI'S FEELZ AT A TIME!
PowerOfAntichris...
21h ago
'Truck drivers don’t think so': Trump scorched as he insists empty ports a 'good thing'
PowerOfAntichris...
21h ago
* Jesus would not deport immigrants. *
PowerOfAntichris...
22h ago
"Like the Chinese Cultural Revolution...the Trumpist right seems obsessed with scrubbing any vestige of progressive thought from government libraries and government-funded museums," Thompson wrote. He added that, "Another eerie echo of Mao has been MAGA’s glorification of strong men doing strong things and its dreams of sending the liberal elites to the factories and the fields to teach them a lesson."
PowerOfAntichris...
23h ago
Cameron Hamilton, FEMA’s acting administrator, was summoned to Department of Homeland Security headquarters in Washington, where he was terminated by Deputy Homeland Security Secretary Troy Edgar and Corey Lewandowski, an adviser to President Donald Trump, according to a person with direct knowledge of the events. Hamilton returned to FEMA headquarters a few miles away, collected his belongings and left. His biography was removed from FEMA’s website and his official X account was archived. The firing occurred a day after Hamilton testified before a House Appropriations subcommittee, where he seemed to contradict recent comments made by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem about potentially eliminating FEMA. “I do not believe it is in the best interests of the American people to eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency,” Hamilton said at the hearing on Wednesday.
TipMeCash
1d ago
follow the username
mekanical
1d ago
Positive q2 print, negative q3, positive q4 = no recession and we laugh our way to the bank.
MAGATSLIE
1d ago
the orange criminal will cause a recession!
PowerOfAntichris...
23h ago
Already has. The report just has not come out yet.
Manu888
1d ago
Thanks to deranged Don the economy will certainly crash
MReza.eco.crypto
1d ago
This happens a lot in September.
Qlay18
1d ago
Reducing imports may lower GDP if it disrupts supply chains or increases production costs, as imports often include intermediate goods used in domestic production. However, it could raise GDP if it boosts domestic industries and net exports (exports minus imports), a component of GDP.
PowerOfAntichris...
22h ago
No. Domestic production takes YEARS to build out and start producing. You have no concept of the difference between theory and real world.
Tarbarx
2d ago
Someone donate me something for my dog surgery please? Appreciate it =)
KnureKnume
2d ago
PowerOfAntichrist is the type of loser that you can’t even believe could exist. Lives a meaningless life and is desperate for any attention, but nobody will give it to him as he has no positive human traits. He screams out "please someone listen to me" nobody does. He now finds himself on one of the few places on the internet where no matter how worthless you are, the website will not ban you. His comments are ignored over and over. "maybe this is the one that will make someone pay attention to me" he thinks but to no avail. BUT, we have a solution. Just like in every other avenue in his worthless life, we can press the holders square, and this piece of human dog shit disappears forever. He is the perfect example of failed parenting. If you choose to make babies, it is your responsibility to make sure that they are not so ugly and repulsive that this behavior is their only outlet. So in conclusion… ugly stupid people, you have to stop having sex.
PowerOfAntichris...
2d ago
"Republicans Silent as Trump Refuses to Commit to Upholding Constitution. Rolling Stone reached out to all 53 GOP senators after the president said he didn't know whether he needs to honor the nation's founding document. None replied"
winnier
2d ago
US never has recession, reptiloids won't let biggest economy to shrink
PowerOfAntichris...
2d ago
Ed Martin, Donald Trump’s embattled pick for U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, once told an AR-15-toting fringe religious group that institutions preventing Trump from overturning the 2020 election would fall like Jericho, according to footage reviewed by Raw Story but now seemingly removed from the internet by the group concerned. “We’re gonna have Jericho March, Jericho March all around,” Martin said, alluding to the Biblical story of how Joshua led the Israelite army to attack the city of Jericho and slaughter its inhabitants.
CrashOverride95
2d ago
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the advance estimate for Q2 2025 US real GDP on July 30, 2025, at 8:30 AM EDT
PowerOfAntichris...
3d ago
‘Barely literate’: Trump's Education secretary’s ‘deranged’ letter gets major red ink corrections
PowerOfAntichris...
3d ago
Last week, agencies including the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, and National Security Agency received a “collection emphasis message” about Greenland-related intelligence from officials under Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing two people familiar with the effort. The intelligence gathering reportedly will focus in part on identifying individuals in Greenland and Denmark who support the Trump administration’s interest in taking over the island. The effort could include using U.S. spy satellites, communications intercepts, and human intelligence.
PowerOfAntichris...
3d ago
Pardoned Jan 6 Rioter Just Killed A Woman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7lgOEv4r2I
PowerOfAntichris...
3d ago
"Donald Trump's policies would increase inflation and cause a recession by the middle of next year" --Kamala Harris, 2024 https://youtube.com/shorts/pAnm5enzhRk?si=VULcJsGnFLCAL3zF
PowerOfAntichris...
3d ago
"Amazon Adds TARIFF FEES On Checkout And MAGA Is FURIOUS"
PowerOfAntichris...
3d ago
"Melania Trump's memecoin linked to $100M in suspicious trading" ONE NATION UNDER FRAUD!
PowerOfAntichris...
4d ago
World Liberty Financial recently secured a deal with an Emirati venture fund backed by the government of Abu Dhabi to take $2 billion in deposits. The business venture would effectively funnel money "into a business led by the U.S. president’s family." TRUMP ONLY CARES ABOUT TRUMP!
PowerOfAntichris...
4d ago
Mike Pence awarded JFK Profile in Courage award for certifying 2020 presidential election on Jan. 6
Screaner
4d ago
this guys making predictionns with AI and hitting pretty hard and its FREE https://x.com/Metaphor_org/status/1919327223187718208
President28
5d ago
Anarchism isn't that bad especially anarcho-capitalism :) It's one of the best ways to approach the economy if you want to make your nation wealthy and prosperous!
sigmaballz
23h ago
What the yap??
PowerOfAntichris...
5d ago
Journalist Josh Marshall also chimed in: "I guess he hasn’t heard about Florence. But the real thing here is that this guy operates in a world of 1950s movies," Marshall wrote on Sunday. Columnist Michael A. Cohen said, "There’s pretty much zero chance he’s heard of Supermax prisons." Conservative anti-Trump lawyer George Conway seized on that comment, adding, "Or knows that Alcatraz is a tiny little rock that can only fit a couple hundred people."
PowerOfAntichris...
5d ago
DARTH IMBECILUS!
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