Treasury Term Premia - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Treasury Term Premia
The Adrian, Crump, and Moench (ACM) model provides an approach for extracting term premia from Treasury yields.

In standard economic theory, yields on Treasury securities are composed of two components: expectations of the future path of short-term Treasury yields and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is defined as the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that interest rates may change over the life of the bond. Since the term premium is not directly observable, it must be estimated, most often from financial and macroeconomic variables.

Current and former New York Fed economists Tobias Adrian, Richard K. Crump, and Emanuel Moench developed a statistical model to describe the joint evolution of Treasury yields and term premia across time and maturities, described in detail in Adrian, Crump, and Moench (2013).

We employ the ACM model to derive and share Treasury term premia estimates for maturities from one to ten years from 1961 to the present. Data are available at daily and monthly frequencies, the latter being end-of-month observations.


About Treasury Term Premia
Downloadable data include estimates of the term premium for yearly Treasury maturities from one to ten years, as well as fitted yields and the expected average level of short-term interest rates.

The data do not represent official estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its President, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

The New York Fed Treasury Term Premia is a product of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC).
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