Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 03 2025 - 00Z Thu Jun 05 2025

...Widespread heavy rain and severe weather threats across the mid section
of the nation late Monday into Wednesday...

...Much cooler weather settles into the Central U.S., while the East warms
up...

...Wet weather to persist across South Florida the next few days,
spreading north into North Florida and the coastal Southeast by
Wednesday...

...Another round of moderate to heavy rains for portions of the Southwest
Wednesday...


The very active Spring 2025 weather pattern will continue over the next
few days with widespread regions of heavy rains and severe weather threats
across the Southern to Central Plains into the Lower Missouri and Middle
Mississippi Valley regions.  Showers and thunderstorms that have been
active over the Southwest over the past 24 hours will begin to shift
farther northeastward late Monday afternoon/Monday night across the
Southern to Central High Plains.  A widespread area of heavy rain,
flooding and severe weather is possible across these areas from late this
afternoon into the overnight hours of Monday/early Tuesday.  High winds
and large hail will be the greatest severe weather threat here, with a
lesser threat of tornadoes.  This heavy rain, flooding and severe weather
threat will then shift eastward during the day on Tuesday, into Tuesday
night, early hours of Wednesday from the Middle Mississippi Valley,
southwest into the Lower Missouri Valley and eastern portions of the
Central and Southern Plains.  Similar to the first round of active
thunderstorms Monday night, the second round will have the potential to
produce severe weather with large hail and high winds the greatest threat,
with a lesser threat from tornadoes.  The first round of heavy rains will
bring some relief to the ongoing moderate to severe drought conditions
across western to central Kansas, much of Nebraska, far northwest Missouri
and far western Iowa.  The second round of heavy rains will be falling
across areas that have received much above average precip over the past
month.  This will be leading to a greatest threat of flooding from north
Texas, across central to eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and Missouri
where soils are more saturated from recent heavy rains.

In addition to the heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threat across
the mid section of the nation, much cooler temperatures are also expected
to develop.  The area of much above average temperatures Monday across the
Plains will be replaced by an increasingly large area of below average
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong front pushes southeastward
across the mid section.

While temperatures cool across the mid-section of the country, the
opposite will occur along the East coast.  The recent prolonged period of
below average temperatures will be replaced by an increasing area of above
average temperatures from the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley, east into
nearly all of the east as an upper level ridge builds across these
regions.  The exception to the above average temperatures across the east
will be across Florida and the coastal Southeast where temperatures will
be below average.  This is the result of a developing mid to upper level
low from the eastern Gulf, across Florida and into the Southeast which
will support the potential for heavy rains.  Heavy rains will initially be
concentrated along and south of a stationary front over central Florida
Monday afternoon through Tuesday, where localized flooding is possible,
especially across urbanized areas.  This rain will be much welcomed as
this region remains in severe to extreme drought conditions.  These rains
across South Florida will likely begin to push northward Wednesday into
North Florida and the coastal Southeast as an area of low pressure,
forming along the stationary front over the western Atlantic,  moves
slowly northward from off the northeast Florida coast.  Please see the
National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook for further details
on this area of low pressure.

During Wednesday, the second in a series of strong mid to upper level low
is forecast to push from off the Southern California coast into the
Southwest.  With moisture values forecast to remain much above average,
another round of active showers and thunderstorms and localized flooding
are possible from far southeast California, across central to northern
Arizona, central to northern New Mexico into southern Colorado, southern
Utah and southern Nevada.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php