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Center for Microeconomic Data

SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS

July Survey: Inflation Expectations Up at Short- and Longer-Term Horizons, Unchanged at Medium-Term

Median inflation expectations increased to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and to 2.9 percent from 2.6 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon. Expectations remained steady at 3.0 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon.
Households’ perceptions about their current financial situation compared to a year ago and expectations about their year-ahead financial situation both improved. Smaller shares of respondents reported that their households are worse off than a year ago or are expecting to be worse off a year from now.
The mean expected probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now dropped 2.3 percentage points (ppt) to 37.4 percent, the lowest reading since January 2025. However, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.4 ppt to 14.4 percent.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly, with the net share of households reporting that it is easier versus harder to get credit decreasing. Conversely, expectations for future credit availability improved, with the net share of respondents expecting it to be easier versus harder to obtain credit a year from now increasing slightly.

For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations Tick Up; Consumers More Optimistic about Taxes and Their Financial Situations

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Home price change expectations

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Household income growth expectations

Fielding the Survey

The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.

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