SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
July Survey: Inflation Expectations Up at Short- and Longer-Term Horizons, Unchanged at Medium-Term
- Median inflation expectations increased to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and to 2.9 percent from 2.6 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon. Expectations remained steady at 3.0 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon.
- Households’ perceptions about their current financial situation compared to a year ago and expectations about their year-ahead financial situation both improved. Smaller shares of respondents reported that their households are worse off than a year ago or are expecting to be worse off a year from now.
- The mean expected probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now dropped 2.3 percentage points (ppt) to 37.4 percent, the lowest reading since January 2025. However, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.4 ppt to 14.4 percent.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly, with the net share of households reporting that it is easier versus harder to get credit decreasing. Conversely, expectations for future credit availability improved, with the net share of respondents expecting it to be easier versus harder to obtain credit a year from now increasing slightly.
For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations Tick Up; Consumers More Optimistic about Taxes and Their Financial Situations
