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Center for Microeconomic Data

SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS

Short-Term Inflation Expectations Are Stable, Come in Mixed at Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons

For the third consecutive month, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0 percent, according to the March Survey of Consumer Expectations. They increased to 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and decreased to 2.6 percent from 2.9 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon. Labor market expectations were also mixed. While expectations about earnings growth and the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now remained essentially unchanged, respondents’ perceived probability of finding a job decreased to 51.2 percent in March from 52.5 percent in February, the lowest reading in almost three years.

For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations are Mixed; Consumers Express Concerns about Retaining and Finding Jobs

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Fielding the Survey

The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.

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