Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 13 2025 - 00Z Sun Jun 15 2025

...Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding possible across parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest over the next few days...

...Severe weather potential most likely across the High Plains through
early this weekend...

...Above average warmth continues across the Intermountain West,
Southwest, and High Plains...


Mid-June weather pattern remains underway through early this weekend and
is expected to feature a large part of the central and eastern U.S. under
the potential for scattered thunderstorms, a few of which could contain
intense rainfall rates, damaging wind gusts, and hail. A single frontal
boundary stretching from the northern Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning
across the Midwest and into the northern High Plains will be the dividing
line between warm/humid to the south and cooler to the north. Along this
frontal boundary, numerous thunderstorms developing tonight and lingering
through Friday could create isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding from the eastern Dakotas through central Minnesota. Further
south, more widely scattered thunderstorms are likely over the next
several days within the sultry summertime airmass stretching from the
southern Plains through the Southeast. More organized areas of
thunderstorms are possible tonight through Friday across the Lower
Mississippi Valley towards the western Gulf Coast. This follows extreme
rainfall amounts that occurred previously throughout parts of southeastern
Texas last night into early Thursday morning. Another focus for unsettled
weather on Friday and Saturday will be across the Mid-Atlantic, where the
lingering frontal boundary could become a focus for persistent
thunderstorm chances. While isolated damaging wind gusts and hail is
possible associated with these scattered storms in the central and eastern
U.S., the greatest potential for severe weather is forecast across the
High Plains as storms develop each afternoon and strengthen.

The temperature outlook in the short range time period (valid ending
Sunday morning) contains above average warmth across much of the
Intermountain West, High Plains, and Southwest as upper ridging remains in
place next to troughing over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread highs into
the 90s are anticipated, with triple digits across the Desert Southwest
extending from southeast California to southern New Mexico. Extreme Heat
Watches are in effect beginning on Saturday for southern Arizona and parts
of the interior southern California Desert due to the potential for
maximum temperatures to reach 114 degrees. Meanwhile, much cooler
temperatures will be confined to the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great
Lakes, and New England to the north of the aforementioned frontal
boundary. High temperatures here will struggle to reach higher than the
60s.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php