Inflation expectations
Median one-, three-, and five-year ahead expected inflation rate
Source: New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
Note: Collection of data for the five-year-ahead inflation expectation began in January 2022.
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
June Survey: Inflation Expectations Down at Short-Term, Unchanged at Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons; Financial Outlook Expectations Improve
- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) to 3.0 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.0 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, at the three-year- and five-year-ahead horizons.
- Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations improved, with a larger share of households expecting a better financial situation and a smaller share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.8 ppt to 14.0 percent, the lowest level since December 2024. The decrease was broad-based across age and education groups.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago showed a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability also improved in June, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.
For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down, Household Financial Expectations Improve
