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Iran is continuing to try to bolster its air defenses in preparation for a potential US or Israeli strike on Iran. Iran has built a new Ghadir phased-array radar in West Azerbaijan Province in northwestern Iran in recent months, according to commercially available satellite imagery. An open-source analyst reported on April 2 that Iran also recently built two Ghadir radars in southern Iran near the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz
Russia seeks to leverage ongoing ceasefire and future peace negotiations to seize large amounts of territory in Ukraine and install a pro-Russian puppet government in Kyiv but will likely continue military operations in Ukraine if the Kremlin is unable to achieve a full Ukrainian surrender through diplomacy.
Alawite insurgents are trying to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government. Sectarian violence and disinformation have intensified in Syria in recent weeks, jeopardizing the political transition from the Bashar al Assad regime. The insurgents have presented themselves as defenders of the Alawite community, as the interim government is predominantly Sunni and has done little to prevent Sunni violence against the Alawite minority.
Russia is consolidating its strategic relationships with the Sahelian juntas to entrench itself in the region. The foreign ministers from the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov on April 3 and 4 as part of the first sessions of “AES-Russia consultations.” A joint AES statement announced that the meeting aims to establish strategic relations in areas of common interest.
The Russian “Helping Ours” Foundation facilitated the deportation of 39 Ukrainian children from occupied Luhansk Oblast to a Russian government-controlled medical facility in Moscow Oblast in late March 2025.
Russian officials are continuing to exploit the temporary energy infrastructure ceasefire's vague or unfinalized terms. US officials reportedly continue to acknowledge Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to commit to a general ceasefire in Ukraine.
Iran continued to threaten US bases and forces, likely to try to discourage a potential US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid US threats to strike these facilities.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) thwarted a Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian plan on April 1 to conduct a “major” attack targeting Israelis abroad. The IDF killed Hassan Ali Mahmoud Badir, who was a member of Hezbollah Unit 3900 and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, in an airstrike in Beirut on April 1.
