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The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding despite both Israeli and Iranian claims of violations. Israel has responded to perceived Iranian violations of the ceasefire but has not resumed its campaign at this time.
Former Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila has reentered Congolese politics amid the eastern DRC crisis after a multiyear hiatus. Kabila remained outside of the DRC for more than a year and kept a low profile until he began remobilizing his political networks to “organize his return to the forefront” in late 2024.
US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, beginning the evening of June 23. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the ceasefire would occur following Qatari mediation.
The Kremlin continues to only diplomatically support Iran, showcasing the limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov, and Chief of the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) Igor Kostykov met with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Moscow on June 23.
Russian occupation administrators attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to secure additional investment and development opportunities for the occupied regions of Ukraine. Russia's investment in occupied Ukraine is driven by two predominant factors: first, the desire to reap economic benefit from the occupation, and second, to further integrate occupied Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence using economic levers.
Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari similarly warned that Iran’s response would be “decisive” and “unpredictable.”
Iranian leaders are currently calibrating their response to the United States' striking their nuclear program. How they ultimately respond will depend on what they conclude is necessary to preserve the Islamic Republic and ensure its longevity. That conclusion will, in turn, derive from how Iranian leaders understand their current situation and their risk tolerance. The following is an assessment that examines these factors and what key decisions Tehran is facing and how it will likely proceed.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned Israeli strikes on Iran and has publicly advocated for de-escalation in order to protect its interests. PRC support for Iran remains primarily economic, aligning with broader PRC efforts to cast itself as a mediator.
