U.S. Talks Up Invasion Threat, Ukraine Plays It Down

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. officials warn of imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits the United Arab Emirates, and the world this week.

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If U.S. intelligence reports are to be believed, it’s going to be a jittery week in Washington, with a Russian invasion of Ukraine even given a potential start date.

While the intelligence leak to the Associated Press indicates a Wednesday invasion plan, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was less precise, but apparently just as certain. “We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window,” he told CNN on Sunday.

In Moscow, Russian officials have expressed befuddlement and exasperation with Western predictions of impending war. Kremlin foreign-policy advisor Yuri Ushakov has ridiculed U.S. warnings as “hysteria,” following an hourlong call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also took a turn in the prediction game, forecasting that any removal of Russian forces around Ukraine would be heralded as a victory for Western pressure instead of what Russia had planned all along.

“After Russian troops finish drills and return to barracks, the West will declare ‘diplomatic victory’ by having ‘secured’ Russian ‘de-escalation’,” Russia’s foreign ministry quoted him as saying following a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Away from the world of U.S. intelligence, there is reason to be wary of a spark igniting a conflict. On Sunday, a spokesman for pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Luhansk region warned of an impending assault by Ukrainian government forces, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

With confusion swirling, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will become the latest Western leader to gauge Moscow’s thinking when he visits Putin on Tuesday. He visits Ukraine today to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

A BBC broadcast in which Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain seemed to suggest that Kyiv might be willing to drop its ambitions to join NATO raised eyebrows on Sunday; that idea was quickly quashed on Monday morning by the ambassador himself and the Ukrainian foreign ministry.

Meanwhile, in Kyiv… In Kyiv, it’s a different story, with Zelensky once again calling for calm. “Right now, the people’s biggest enemy is panic,” Zelensky said, adding that he hadn’t seen any intelligence reporting that pointed to an imminent invasion.

On a call with Biden on Sunday, the Ukrainian president invited Biden to come to Kyiv to help send “a powerful signal and help stabilize the situation,” according to the Ukrainian government. The White House readout of the call made no mention of the invitation.

FP’s Amy Mackinnon just returned from Kyiv and summed up the scene on the ground:

“On Friday as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan took to the podium in the White House briefing room to issues a dire warning that a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine may be days away, I was at dinner in Kyiv with a mix of Ukrainians and Americans.

“News of the press conference rippled round the table and we were soon all staring at our phones. As I rebooked my flight home then and there, I looked around as other diners in the restaurant continued to enjoy their evenings in peace.

“This about summarizes the puzzling mismatch in alarm between Kyiv and Washington. On the surface, all was calm in the Ukrainian capital this past week. Many people I spoke to say they have gotten used to Russia’s efforts to destabilize their country.

“It’s hard to find anyone in Kyiv who is quite as alarmed as American officials. But at the same time, a new vocabulary is creeping into conversations, one of go-bags, bomb shelters, and first aid kits. Many say they plan to head West to Lviv in the event of a Russian attack. Many plan to stay and fight.”

Tuesday, Feb. 15: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau in Moscow.

ASEAN foreign ministers gather for a two-day retreat both online and in person in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Wednesday, Feb. 16: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro meets with Putin in Moscow.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits the Israeli Knesset in Jerusalem.

Thursday, Feb. 17: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen holds talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Brussels.

Friday, Feb. 18: The Munich Security Conference opens. Speakers include German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris.

Heads of state and government from the European Union and African Union gather in Brussels for the EU-AU summit.

Sunday, Feb. 20: Russian and Ukrainian military exercises are scheduled to conclude.

India’s state elections. The Indian states of Goa and Uttarakhand hold legislative assembly elections today, with the two Bharatiya Janata Party-run states offering a test of popularity for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. Official results will be declared on March 10.

Erdogan to UAE. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits the United Arab Emirates today in a sign of strengthening ties between the two countries. The two-day visit follows Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed’s trip to Ankara in November 2021, when the United Arab Emirates announced a $10 billion investment fund for Turkish projects. More recently, the two countries agreed a currency swap deal worth nearly $5 billion to shore up Turkey’s depleted foreign exchange reserves.

Iraq’s next president. Iraqi presidential candidate Hoshyar Zebari is out of the running after the Supreme Court barred his candidacy based on previous charges of corruption during his time as finance minister. Zebari’s exit paves the way for incumbent President Barham Salih to retain the post, although Iraqi lawmakers have yet to set a date to make their selection for the largely ceremonial position.

The Philippines’ presidential campaign. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late Philippine dictator, has opened up a 44-point lead over his nearest rival in May’s upcoming presidential election, according to a new poll that showed 60 percent of voters would choose him in an election. Marcos’s lead over Philippine Vice President Leni Robredo increased 11 points since the last Pulse Asia poll, taken in December 2021. His running mate, Sara Duterte-Carpio, also looks set to capture the vice presidency; the daughter of President Rodrigo Duterte holds a 21-point lead over Senate President Vicente Sotto.

New Zealand police have criticized the unorthodox efforts of Parliament Speaker Trevor Mallard to disperse protesters in front of parliament buildings in Wellington after the lawmaker blasted out Barry Manilow’s greatest hits, James Blunt, and Los Del Río’s “Macarena” to compel protesters to leave. The protesters have gathered in Wellington to criticize the country’s COVID-19 restrictions, in parallel to similar demonstrations taking place in Canada.

“It certainly wouldn’t be tactics or methodologies that we would endorse, and it’s something we would have preferred did not occur,” Wellington police chief Corrie Parnell told Radio New Zealand.

Opposition politician Chris Bishop was less diplomatic, calling Mallard’s methods “unedifying, embarrassing and ineffective.”