HEALTH

Relief from COVID-19 is coming in 2021, but not for a while — think next Thanksgiving

Adam Tamburin
Nashville Tennessean

In the middle of another grueling shift in the St. Thomas West emergency room last month, Dr. Tim Myers stepped away and took the long walk to the back of the hospital, where he was scheduled to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

He pulled out his phone to snap a selfie as he got the injection. For Myers, his colleagues and millions of Americans, the recent arrival of vaccines was the first sign of relief after an arduous year.

Now health officials are scrambling to vaccinate people as quickly as possible. In Tennessee more than 90,000 residents have received the first of two vaccine doses with a wave of second doses expected to begin soon.

"This is the best chance that we have to stop it and get back to normal," Myers said.

But he was realistic about the long road ahead. Tennessee health officials say it could take months to finish vaccinating frontline health care workers and people in high-risk groups. Experts say most people likely won't get access to the vaccine until summer at the earliest.

In the meantime, the threat of sickness, overcrowded hospitals and death remains as potent as ever.

"Unfortunately, I'm a little concerned that it will only get worse here for the next month," Myers said.

Minutes after getting his vaccine, he slipped on his white coat and headed back down the long hallway to the emergency room to finish his shift. There was no time to celebrate — more COVID-19 patients were waiting.

"We're busy down there," Myers said. "I'm going back to work."

Health care experts said a return to normal was possible this year. But there is a continued need for social distancing and masks as vaccines roll out across the nation. Here's what you need to know for the months ahead.

How many vaccine doses does Tennessee have?

Tennessee Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey said she expects Tennessee to receive 360,000 vaccine doses per month in 2021.

More than 6.8 million people live in Tennessee, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. State health officials said that if supplies remain at their current levels, full vaccination in Tennessee could take at least mid-2022.

But Piercey said she expected those shipments could grow based on increased production and potential new vaccine options this year, which could slightly improve that timeline.

How long will it take to get the COVID-19 vaccine in Tennessee?

The state's phased vaccination plan could be modified as new research, recommendations and vaccines are released — the latest revisions were announced Wednesday.

According to the latest information, Most people will have to wait months to get their doses.

  • About 450,000 front-line workers and individuals with heightened health risks get access to the vaccine first.
  • An additional 100,000 health care workers get access next.
  • About 150,000 teachers, childcare workers and first responders will be next in line.
  • Next, about 650,000 people with medical conditions that put them at a higher risk of hospitalization or death will get access.
  • Then access to the vaccine will go to about 600,000 people including grocery workers, people in prisons and people who support "critical infrastructure."

Tennessee also will begin vaccinating elderly residents on a rolling basis while giving shots to the other high-priority groups.

There are many variables at play, including the number of Tennesseans who are willing to get the vaccine and potential delays to vaccine shipments.

Dr. Tim Myers takes a selfie while receiving a COVID-19 vaccine from Debbie Mahoney, R.N., at Ascension Saint Thomas Hospital West in Nashville, Tenn., Thursday, Dec. 17, 2020.

Tennessee health officials administered the first round of vaccine doses to more than 90,000 people by the end of 2020. They originally hoped to vaccinate 200,000 people, but said delayed shipments blunted their efforts.

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The vaccinations so far only account for the first of two doses for a small fraction of health care workers and high-risk individuals. People must get a second dose of the vaccine, at least 21 days after the first dose, before they are protected against the coronavirus.

Different counties will vaccinate their populations at different speeds, but most Tennesseans are not expected to have access to the shots for some time.

“The arrival of the vaccine is a first firm step in a still very long journey," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “This will take months.”

When will things return to normal?

People “can be forgiven for thinking well we hit the finish line," Schaffner said. He said political messaging in Tennessee and around the country has been focused on the arrival vaccine while leaders were "reluctant to tell us the tough story.”

Schaffner said masks, social distancing and limited gatherings should be the norm for most of the year, as we wait for the majority of residents to get vaccinations. Experts say it's too soon to say when we can return to some version of normal, but everyone it agrees it is months away.

"Think about next Thanksgiving," Schaffner said. “That gives us a target it’s down the road and it’s actually pretty realistic.”

Schaffner said that return to normalcy would depend on how many people willingly step forward to get the vaccine. He said that at least 70% of Americans would need to be vaccinated to make large family gatherings safe.

It's possible conditions will improve more quickly, particularly as new vaccines hit the market, but Schaffner said his goal is to “underpromise and overdeliver."

“If we can sit around the dining room table across the country and give thanks for a successful vaccination program that will be beyond wonderful," Schaffner said.

Do people need to wear masks and social distance after they get vaccinated?

While waiting for the all clear from medical professionals, Schaffner said, people still need to wear their masks and social distance — even if they've been vaccinated.

Scientists know the existing vaccines prevent people from getting sick, but it's possible they could still be asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers who can spread the virus to others.

More research on the vaccines efficacy could change that guidance as 2021 progresses.

Will new vaccines be available in 2021?

Even as vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna arrive in hospitals and medical offices, scientists are continuing their research to develop new options and to fine-tune the use of existing ones.

Dr. Buddy Creech, the director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Research Program, said as many as six vaccines could be available by summer. Those additional vaccines could speed up the vaccination program.

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Even as the vaccines are put into circulation, Creech said his work is far from over. He is launching juvenile trials for the Moderna vaccine and wants to study the potential effects of vaccines on pregnant women. 

How were the COVID-19 vaccines developed so quickly?

Creech, who oversaw trials for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, said the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines was a seismic development only possible because of decades of previous research that laid the groundwork.

Scientists working on two parallel tracks have spent years analyzing the cell structure of older coronavirus strains and developing new vaccination strategies. COVID-19 was an "innovative spark" that brought those two lines of existing research together, prompting unprecedented progress.

 “There are times in human history when giant leaps are made," Creech said, mentioning the space program. “I think we’re going to see this with some of the vaccine technologies that are being developed right now.

“We stand at the precipice at some really phenomenal leaps forward in our ability to combat infectious diseases.”

But that means more work for Creech and his team, and a few more hard months for everyone else.

“So much of our work is only now beginning," Creech said. "We want to take some days off but now is not the time. Now is the time to dig a little deeper.”

Reach Adam Tamburin at 615-726-5986 and atamburin@tennessean.com. Follow him on Twitter @tamburintweets.