The inside story of how Kadhimi is securing another term

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, who has been in office since Adil Abdul Mahdi stepped down in May 2020, is making moves on the international stage unheard of among his predecessors. The maneuvering by the spy chief and former journalist is believed to be geared to secure backing for a second term.

Implementing a new vision

Kadhimi began outlining his vision for Iraq and its role in the region through his "New Mashriq [Orient]” initiative, which entails establishing stronger ties with Egypt and Jordan. Subsequently, he proceeded to host the recent Aug. 28 Baghdad Conference, which was attended by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Jordan's King Abdullah II in addition to several other top regional leaders. These included Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani as well as Emirati Vice President and Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum. The Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers were also among those present. French President Emmanuel Macron notably was the sole top European representative.

According to informed Iraqi government sources, the attendance of top Gulf Arab officials was never certain, and ultimately due to an endeavor to shore up the incumbent Iraqi premier. Speaking on condition of anonymity, one Iraqi political source told Amwaj.media, “The Emir of Qatar and the vice president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were not expected to attend, but they decided to do so in the two days [prior to the summit as a move] in support of Kadhimi’s government."

This characterization of events dovetails with analysis which considers the conference as a great show of regional support for both Kadhimi himself and his government. Indeed, observers have particularly pointed to President Sisi’s assertion in his speech before the summit in which he stated that "Egypt views with great appreciation the significant achievements in Iraq in the past period under the leadership of the prime minister."

Kadhimi’s cards

Kadhimi is relying on a combination of factors to secure support for a second term. These factors include his ongoing efforts to gain greater support from the international community and sparing Iraq from the dangers of the US-Iran conflict. Importantly, Kadhimi’s advantages also include the absence of disapproval from the key triangle of players who greatly influence Iraqi politics: the supreme Shiite religious authority, regional players, and international actors.

Against this backdrop, it is vital to consider that Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani and Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei do not explicitly endorse any electoral candidates. As Amwaj.media recently reported, Kadhimi did not gain an audience with Khamenei during his recent visit to Tehran but received an encouraging “handwritten letter” from the top Iranian official in the weeks prior. So, in the current wider context, the absence of disapproval likely indicates implicit backing.

Moreover, Kadhimi has yet to be altogether rejected on the domestic political stage. Considering himself as a fireman who has been putting out blazes—and especially between Tehran and Washington—the Iraqi prime minister appears set to achieve his aim of staying in office.

In this vein, a senior leader of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) told Amwaj.media, "Frankly, we do not mind Kadhimi taking on a second term. He enjoys positive relations with all parties. One or two armed factions may stand in his face, but this may not be an obstacle."

Speaking on condition that his name be withheld, the PMU leader added, "We have information that Iran has no problem [with a second term for Kadhimi] either. Iran has neither refused it nor supported him so far—but it may find him to be the right choice for the coming period."

The main obstacle

The Fatah alliance, which includes armed Shiite parties—most notably the Badr Organization and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq—has not expressed any position in the debate on Kadhimi’s future. However, sources within the bloc have indicated to Amwaj.media that the biggest obstacle to the prime minister’s ambitions is Qais Al-Khazali, the commander of Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq.

Amwaj.media has also learned from sources within Fatah that the bloc’s leader, Hadi Al-Ameri, is among those who may at any moment endorse another term for Kadhimi—unlike Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq, which consistently attacks him through affiliated media outlets and refuses the prospect of him remaining in office.

However, there seems to be an emerging conviction that Kadhimi is the candidate of the Shiite moderation camp, which includes Hikmah Movement leader Ammar al-Hakim and former prime minister Haider al-Abadi (2014-18).

There is also an ever stronger perception that the incumbent premier will also enjoy the backing of Shiite cleric and politician Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has previously stated that "no government has ever been formed after 2003 unless I intervene."

The likely path ahead

On Sept. 13, the seven-member gathering of major Shiite actors who tend to bargain over the naming of prime ministers convened in Baghdad. The group is made up of the Hikmah Movement, the State of Law Coalition, the Fatah Alliance, the Ata'a Movement, the Islamic Virtue (Fadhila) Party, the Alliance Towards Reforms (Sa'iroon) and the Nasr (Victory) bloc. The aim of the meeting was to sign a document requiring the next prime minister to belong to one of the winning blocs in the parliament.

The idea was put forward by the Fatah Alliance, Amwaj.media has learned, but the proposal was not accommodated. The National Power of the State coalition led by Hakim in alliance with Abadi were the first to reject it, according to informed Iraqi sources. Hakim and Abadi agree on renewing Kadhimi’s mandate but only if Abadi, who was prime minister in 2014-18, is rejected.

Although the choice of Iraq’s premier is limited to Shiite parties as they consider the position to be their share of power within the political system, Kadhimi enjoys considerable support from the two most prominent Kurdish and Sunni Arab leaders, namely Masoud Barzani, who heads the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Parliament Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi, who leads the Takaddum Front.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, Iraqi sources have stated that Kadhimi's recent visit to Tehran was designed to explain the “domestic stances towards his government,” and to put forward initiatives aimed at opening the door to new understandings between Tehran and Washington.

In this vein, one source close to Kadhimi told Amwaj.media, "Iran's attitude is not dismissive, both among the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the intelligence ministry. That’s what is there so far.” He added, “Our friend”—as the source described Kadhimi—"has an Iranian acceptance. He is not their favorite, but they don't want to repeat the mistake of 2018 when Adil Abdul Mahdi was chosen as the prime minister."

Two figures are competing with Kadhimi: the president of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zidan, and former prime minister-designate Adnan Al-Zurfi. However, reports indicate that Zurfi does not have Iranian support, unlike Zidan who is considered the most prominent competitor of the incumbent premier.

Kadhimi is now trying to capitalize on the great external momentum in his favor to win another term while easing the tensions with his opponents at home. Against this backdrop, he may present his domestic opponents with important initiatives, most notably calming the situation with the US and seeking the removal of some of his foes from the US sanctions list.

Unlike his predecessors, Kadhimi has been seeking a second term in a balanced manner, maneuvering both at home and abroad. He gained a preliminary acceptance from his allies and opponents at home, and then went on to pave the path for another term through support from beyond Iraq’s borders. He is the first prime minister since 2003 to gather this level of international backing.

In sum, the conversation on Kadhimi's second term is still in its early stages. However, his moves point to a relentless pursuit of another term—and especially since his declared independence from any of the parties which were part of previous governments may make him everyone's favorite. The reasons for the likely success of his mission are manifold, but straightforward—and include the reality that this will absorb the anger of the Iraqi street with the country’s economic and security crises.