Empire State Manufacturing Survey

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Current

Expected

U.S. recession

20052010201520202025

Survey responses were collected between May 2 and May 9.

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Business activity continued to decline modestly in New York State in May, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -9.2. New orders and shipments increased after declining last month. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories edged higher. Employment declined, as did the average workweek. Input price increases continued to pick up, while selling price increases slowed. Firms remained pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index holding slightly below zero.

Business Conditions Continue to Worsen

Manufacturing activity fell for a third consecutive month in New York State, according to the May survey. The general business conditions index was similar to last month’s reading at -9.2. The new orders index climbed above zero and, at 7.0, pointed to a modest increase in orders. The shipments index also turned positive, but only just so, and at 3.5, indicated a slight increase in shipments. Unfilled orders edged up. The inventories index remained positive at 4.8, signaling that business inventories continued to move higher. Delivery times were steady, while the supply availability index fell to -11.4, suggesting supply availability worsened.

Input Price Increases Continue to Pick Up

The index for number of employees came in at -5.1, and the average workweek index was -3.4, pointing to a small decline in both employment and hours worked. The prices paid index climbed for a fifth consecutive month, rising eight points to 59.0, its highest level in more than two years. The prices received index retreated six points to 22.9, suggesting that selling price increases slowed somewhat.

Firms Remain Pessimistic

Firms continued to expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead. The index for future general business conditions remained below zero at -2.0. New orders and shipments are expected to edge lower, and firms expect to reduce capital spending over the next six months. Input price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen significantly.

Contacts

Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org

Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025

Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes

Historical Tables

Diffusion Indexes

Seasonally adjusted: csv

Not seasonally adjusted: csv

Data definitions

2 pages / 10 kb

All Data

Seasonally adjusted: csv

Not seasonally adjusted: csv

Data definitions

2 pages / 10 kb

Seasonal Factors

Seasonal factors: csv

Data definitions 2 pages / 15 kb

Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.

For demonstration only:

Sample survey 1 page / 44 kb

Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.

The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.

Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision to reflect new seasonal factors.

Seasonal Adjustment

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.

The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.

Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:

X = log(p/(1-p))

The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:

adjX = X - seasonal factor

The result is then transformed using the following equation:

SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))

To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.

Data definitions

1 page / 15 kb

Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025

JAN	FEB	MAR	APR
15 report	18 report	17 report	15 report
MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG
15 report	16	15	15
SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
15	15	17	15