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transcript

‘It’s His Own Damn Fault,’ Top G.O.P. Pollster Says of Trump and Facebook

[MUSIC PLAYING] (SINGING) When you walk in the room, do you have sway?

kara swisher

I’m Kara Swisher, and you’re listening to “Sway.” An hour before this taping, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a ban on former president Donald Trump instituted by Facebook following the January 6 Capitol attack. But don’t get too comfy. The Oversight Board, which Mark Zuckerberg set up as a supreme court he could cower behind, has actually just passed the buck right back to Zuck & Co. Now Facebook has six months to define what has been an indefinite ban. That means Trump could be blocked permanently or back online at some point. In the interim, Trump has unveiled his own social-media platform. Well, it’s more like a glorified blog. But it will surely be appealing to millions. The last time Trump was given a megaphone, he helped usher in lies and conspiracy theories and a deadly attack at the Capitol. So his return to social media — or, should I say, to the blogosphere — opens up a can of worms about what this means for the Republican Party, for the 2024 elections and for America. My guest today is Frank Luntz, the veteran Republican pollster and strategist who shot to fame with his Fox News focus groups. He’s sure to have a hot take on this and much more. Frank, welcome to “Sway.”

frank luntz

This is a privilege.

kara swisher

So let’s start off with the news of Trump’s new blog. Let’s start with that. Rumors of the social-media project have floated around for a while, particularly since Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube moved to remove Trump from their platforms in the wake of the Capitol attack. Now it has a name: From the Desk of Donald J. Trump. Have you visited his site? And I’d love your insights on what he’s up to right here.

frank luntz

I get his emails every day, and I read them. I read every single one of them, because if you don’t, you’re out of touch. We have to know what he’s saying, whether or not we agree with it. And I’ll tell you, there are two things that I’ve felt over the last few months. Number one is, I no longer wake up in the morning trembling in fear, wondering what is the latest crisis that has been precipitated by something he said or did the night before. And second is that I don’t like the — and I’ll use the phrase “cancel culture,” although it may not be accurate here. There is a reason why he got elected. There’s a reason why he was defeated. And that we have to take both into account as we study him, that he is merely a vessel for those who felt ignored, forgotten, or even betrayed. And he brought so much rancor and disagreement and dissension and division in this country. And in the aftermath, I hope that we don’t dismiss it. I hope that we don’t ignore it. I don’t really fully want to move on, because I think we’ve got a lot to learn. We can reject — and probably should — the individual, but not reject those causes that led to his rise.

kara swisher

OK. So one of the things that led to his rise was the use of social media. From someone who gives advice like this, what do you think is happening here? He’s obviously brought back Brad Parscale, who was very successful in his initial rise, as an advisor, in terms of reaching out to people. His relationship with people is helped by a digital relationship, and he’s used it beautifully, I have to say. Whether you like him or not, he’s quite good at it. So you do a lot of focus groups on Republicans and Trump supporters. How is he going to engage people the way he did before?

frank luntz

Well, he’ll never engage in the way he did before, because he simply doesn’t have that capability. He can’t hop on Air Force One. He cannot dominate the news coverage. He can get a sliver of it. And he will continue to do so. He’s not going away. This is not someone who can disappear gently into the good night. That said, it just doesn’t move people the way that it used to. And with every passing month, he’ll become less and less relevant. And I know that this is going to irritate Trump voters who will hear this, although the tragedy is that not that many people will. And it’s something that we may or may not have a conversation about, but it is probably what bothers me the most — that we simply get our news to affirm rather than inform. We seek to be validated rather than educated. And that’s, to me, the greatest challenge right now and why understanding what’s happening with social media, understanding what’s happening in Silicon Valley, is not just essential, it is the future of this country. If we do not figure out a way to share ideas, to share disagreements, to embrace that which we do not know for sure and, probably, for me, the most important, the pursuit of trust — if we don’t do that, then we’re in deep trouble, as a country.

kara swisher

So that said, react to the ban itself and then also what this decision, which this board — which was paid for by Facebook, put in place by Facebook, appointed by Facebook — what does it mean, at this point, to have a situation where a company can ban a president, doesn’t want to take responsibility for it, and then pushes it off to some group that then pushes it back to them?

frank luntz

I’m so torn. I’ve been on both sides of this issue. And where I come down — does it promote the truth? Does it share the actual facts? Does it enhance or weaken the strength of the Republic? And in the end, what does the public want, need, and deserve from social media? And I’m going to duck it.

kara swisher

That’s what you’re doing. I’m waiting for it. Like, and?

frank luntz

And I recognize those who say this is censorship or this is canceling. And I’m so afraid of that. And it’s real. It is happening. It’s happening on college campuses. It’s happening in the media. I’m very familiar with what happened on the editorial pages of your own newspaper. And this is a problem. I also —

kara swisher

All right. I’m going to push back. It’s complex. Let’s use a Facebook term. It’s a little more complex than it’s being —

frank luntz

OK.

kara swisher

—discussed in public, or anywhere else. All of these things. Some of it is consequence culture. Some of it’s cancel culture. But it’s been made into these kind of twitchy, reductive terms that try to encompass everything, I think, personally. But I do want to get your take on this because I think they have just passed the buck back to Facebook, where it belongs. But the problem is, even if you agree with the decision that Facebook or Twitter makes, the fact that two people in the United States decided the fate of Donald Trump online is frightening —

frank luntz

Yes.

kara swisher

—is flat-out frightening. Even if you agree with the decision, two people made the decision: Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey.

frank luntz

Complex is the right word. I’m not going to use phrases like reductive, because that’s what makes the average person go nuts. That’s why they don’t like elites. To them, it’s not reductive. It’s does the president have a right to communicate? But does he have the right to tell lies? Which I also think is an essential part of this conversation, and the consequences of those lies. You corrected me, correctly. Is it cancel culture or consequential culture? If the president is saying something that isn’t true, such as that he actually won in 2020 and the election was stolen, and if we know that that’s going to cause people to do things that are violent and anti-social and potentially undermine the strength of this Republic — which is happening and did happen on January 6 — all of that has to be considered. And my fear is that we have gone to our camps, we have drawn the lines, and you’re evil if you think Trump should have the right to be heard. I’m a pollster. My job is to listen to the public. And our system, our populace right now, is so woke and so provoked and so triggered that we can’t have a sensible, sane conversation on this without destroying each other.

kara swisher

Which you have —

frank luntz

We’ve got to figure that out.

kara swisher

—you have shown and think. But a lot of it has been from years and years of pollsters on both sides of the aisle. You were around the idea of calling global warming climate change and the death tax thing. And so this is what Washington has done for decades. This is not a new and fresh thing. It’s just been amplified by social media.

frank luntz

Except that when you count something as an estate tax or a death tax, it does not lead to someone rioting, does not lead to violence. You may disagree with the terminology, but that is not what I’m concerned about, because we’re going to agree to disagree on a whole lot of stuff.

kara swisher

But I think what happens is that it becomes amplified in a social media section. And when I say reductive, I don’t mean to insult people. It’s like, if you can get it down to a word like woke, it’s a signal that you then can’t have a real discussion. But you’ve been talking about how divided America is for as long as I can remember, and certainly since the 2012 election. I want to get into why this is so, but how much do you blame the Mark Zuckerbergs and Jack Dorseys of the world — these platforms — and how much do you think it’s an inevitable shift of people to their tribal sides?

frank luntz

OK. People say that all social media did is give people a mouthpiece to voice what they’ve been thinking for decades. I don’t think they were thinking it. I think we put it into their heads. And we put it into them that it is perfectly fine to be rude and abusive to people, and it’s not. It’s perfectly fine to destroy them on cable news if we don’t like them, and it’s not. It’s perfectly fine not just to dehumanize, but to delegitimize. And I’ve been doing focus groups now since 1989, so I’ve been around now — gee, hard to believe, but for more than 30 years. And they are more alarming, more depressing, more mind-blowing than they have ever been in my life. And I have finished some of these where I can’t sleep for the rest of the night. I just — the anger and the viciousness and the personal attacks. And I’ll keep saying to them, you’re going to be on TV. Your kids are going to be watching you. Your kids are going to ask you why you behave this way. And they’ll say to me, my kids are going to be proud because I called those people out. What the hell?

kara swisher

But one of the things Trump and his team really understood is how to capitalize on a divide and use social media and other ways to do it. The stolen-election rumors were particularly effective. And you’re seeing that in — I’ve seen it in your focus groups. I’ve seen it in my own relatives. They were fine with the election and then, weeks later, were not, for some reason. And something happened. So he planted these seeds and repeated them again. In 2019, I actually did a column saying, if he loses the election, he’s going to say it’s a fraud. He’s going to repeat it over and over again. And then social media is going to amplify it. And then cable media will amplify it. And then it will become a thing. Has this been actually effective, from what you’re seeing, for Republican voters? Because January 6, did it shake up the opinions of Republicans in your focus groups, or are we back to “it was all justified?”

frank luntz

It was effective because Donald Trump lost the election in 2020. I don’t understand why politicians had so much trouble saying it. He lost. If you are a Trump supporter, you would do a lot more good for your people and your cause by telling people to get vaccinated and by sending those emails out rather than arguing about something that is never, ever, ever going to change. So do something productive. And it so agitates me.

kara swisher

That’s a nice eat-your-vegetables message. But is it effective here to get voters to vote? Because he’s using it quite a lot — “the big lie.” That’s the word they’re using.

frank luntz

Yeah, but he’s the reason. I know that he blames Mitch McConnell for losing the two Senate seats in Georgia. The truth is, it was Donald Trump. The reason why there is a Democratic Senate in Washington today is because of Donald Trump, not Mitch McConnell. If Donald Trump had not undermined Georgian faith in the electoral process, one of those Republicans — David Perdue — would have been elected. On Election Day, Republicans had a four-point generic ballot advantage. Actually, on Election Day, both of them could have been elected.

kara swisher

OK.

frank luntz

Both Republicans could have won.

kara swisher

But you quoted a poll from February 2021 suggesting that 76 percent of self-identified Republicans buy into this big lie.

frank luntz

It’s our poll.

kara swisher

Blog post —

frank luntz

It’s our poll.

kara swisher

—about it, I guess. Yeah.

frank luntz

It’s our survey. And yes, more than 2 —

kara swisher

That’s high.

frank luntz

More than two-thirds of Republicans believe that the election was stolen.

kara swisher

Why is it so high? So it’s working. This big lie thing is working.

frank luntz

It is working. And it’s the reason why I’m so torn about this Facebook decision. I know what the long-term ramifications, and I don’t know what is the right approach. Do you prioritize freedom of speech above all else, knowing that it is dishonest and deceitful speech, but we don’t want to have a chilling effect on the ability of people to speak up even if they don’t tell the truth? Or do we prioritize faith and trust in our democratic institutions and in our Republic? I don’t know what the right answer is, which is why I ducked the question, but not really. I think these are two essential values, the most important values in this country. And as a pollster, I have to promote free speech. I need to know what people are thinking. And I don’t ever want them to be afraid to tell me the truth.

kara swisher

OK. But this big lie is working. 76, that’s a high number. Will it spur them to vote, then? That’s, I guess, effective what I mean is actually voting Democrats out of office, for example, with this group of people.

frank luntz

Or, actually, I think the greater impact — I haven’t said this before — this could cost the Republicans the majority in the House in 2022. What Donald Trump is saying is actually telling people it’s not worth it to vote. Donald Trump single-handedly may cause people not to vote. And he may be the greatest tool in the Democrats’ arsenal to keep control of the House and Senate in 2022. If the Republicans lose the majority in the House, they will lay the blame at the feet of Donald Trump for telling people it’s not worth it to vote. Am I being clear?

kara swisher

Yeah, I got it. So to win back the majority. They will not win back —

frank luntz

To win back the majority.

kara swisher

OK. The latest casualties of “the big lie” have been Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming, Utah Senator Mitt Romney. Romney was booed at the Utah GOP convention but escaped censure. Cheney has come under scrutiny as one of the ten House Republicans to vote for Trump’s impeachment in 2021. Now she’s under fire for fist-bumping Biden, which seems bizarre. They’re not pals, but they were just being cordial, I guess. And she’s probably going to lose her position in leadership. Are critics of Cheney and Romney just the loudest voices in the Republican Party, or are they the dominant voice of the party? Because it seems like it’s everywhere, whether it’s in California or Arizona or Michigan. Every time I turn on the television, there’s some Republican official saying the election was stolen, and we have to vote out Liz Cheney.

frank luntz

We tend to amplify the voices that are already amplified. And unfortunately, those voices that take an alternative point of view are often either ignored or forgotten. Donald Trump is still the most significant individual within the Republican Party among the rank and file. And he can absolutely, positively have a significant, if not deciding, impact on a primary still. Every day, he becomes less significant. Every day, his comments become less impactful. But as of today, there was no one in the Republican Party who can challenge him for being able to control the narrative and being able to have sway internally.

kara swisher

Yeah. So how does Liz Cheney play out? She’s very much sticking to her guns.

frank luntz

The issue now is whether she draws too much attention to her opposition to Trump and whether she should be more focused on helping House Republicans communicate their message rather than her standing up to Donald Trump. That’s a decision that House Republicans have to make. But I understand what the controversy is. It’s not just about Cheney’s opposition to Trump. It’s also about what she does in her job every day. And actually, she and I — we share a number of opinions. I respect her.

kara swisher

So what’s going to happen to her, though? What is going to happen — and Mitt Romney? It looks like they’re going to go down.

frank luntz

I think that Romney survives as a Senator, but I don’t think he seeks re-election. I think Liz Cheney — I don’t know whether she survives in her position, because I think Republicans really — they understand where she stands. And they voted for her. They affirmed her —

kara swisher

In a secret ballot.

frank luntz

In a secret, but it would be helpful to her if she focused on what was wrong with Joe Biden rather than what’s wrong with Donald Trump.

kara swisher

The idea of move along — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is doing that. At first, he was quite a critic of President Trump’s behavior right after the attack. And then — I hate the word flip-flop, but that’s what he seems to have done.

frank luntz

He’s got a very tough position right now.

kara swisher

I would agree. I would agree.

frank luntz

You cannot win with Donald Trump. You cannot win without him. You actually have to find some way for these two aspects to coalesce, or you lose the majority, or you can’t form a majority. I think he’s got the toughest job in America right now.

kara swisher

But on a hot mic, he noted — I don’t think it was by accident — that he had it with her and lost confidence. He has to do this? Because you just said you can’t win with him, and you can’t win without him. What does that mean? What do you do, then?

frank luntz

It means that you have to hope that he realizes — that Trump realizes — that a Republican Congress is more likely to be an effective critic of what’s happening at the border that would be more likely to represent the policies, even if they don’t represent the personality and the viciousness that Trump pursued those policies, that he would be better off with a Republican House than he would with a Democratic House. Trump brought this all on himself, never understood, in 2018, what he was doing to actually end up creating a Pelosi majority in the House, just as he never understood what he was doing in helping to create a Democractic, a Chuck Schumer majority in the Senate. Donald Trump has no one but himself to blame. His behavior, his actions, his words led to all of this. And he didn’t understand that he was actually sowing the seeds of his own destruction, of his own impeachment, by making it impossible for Republicans to govern around him. And he still doesn’t understand it. But it’s his own damn fault for the situation that he is in. And it’s his own damn fault, just in his debate performance — in that first debate performance. Trump’s behavior at that debate was disgraceful. It was an embarrassment. And that was his behavior for so much of his presidency. He has a legitimate record to defend, a legitimate record of success. But his own demeanor ended up costing Republican seats in the House and in the Senate.

kara swisher

Well, it king of begs the question, why can’t you quit him? What is the problem with Kevin McCarthy and the others? Why can’t you quit — if this is the imperfect vessel, as you said, what is the — when you look at your focus groups, and you talk to voters, why can’t they quit him, then?

frank luntz

Because if they quit him, his people stay home, and the Democrats win an overwhelming majority in both institutions. Right now, we have the closest, most divided Congress in modern times. If you lose those core Trump voters, you lose your base, and you lose the ability to put together a majority.

kara swisher

All right. So you said that —

frank luntz

By the way, just as the Democrats can’t quit A.O.C., they can’t quit the squad. They need them to get their majority.

kara swisher

OK. So you say McCarthy has the toughest job now putting him — but Fox News Host Tucker Carlson recently revealed that McCarthy rented a room from you for the coronavirus pandemic. Carlson alleged McCarthy was violating ethics rules by living with a lobbyist for Google, the lobbyist being you. What is your takeaway from this?

frank luntz

I’m not a lobbyist. I’ve worked through Google on language. I don’t advocate for them. Tucker realizes that he can make any accusation he wants to make, and that cadre, because he’s very popular among a certain segment of conservatism. I think Tucker is running for president. And I think that’s what he’s going to do. And I think he’s going to try to demonize and destroy anyone who might stand up against him. And that’s all that this is.

kara swisher

He claimed that living arrangements would give you, quote, “outsized influence” over the Republican Party’s positions, I guess because, I don’t know, you gave him extra toilet paper. I’m not really clear why that would be the case. But what’s your response to that?

frank luntz

That is so funny. I love that. I’m going to use that line.

kara swisher

Use it, go right ahead. I’ve got a million of them.

frank luntz

I don’t get it.

kara swisher

So what’s your response, though? This is what’s happening. It’s a play for power, from your perspective.

frank luntz

This is part of the demonization and delegitimization. And it’s tragic. And I don’t know how to stop it. And if you want to be involved in the process, you just have to accept it.

kara swisher

You have to accept it and just live to fight another day, essentially.

frank luntz

Which is, quite frankly, hard for me, because this is what gives me the headache, that I should have spoken up more. I should have spoken out more. I knew it. And I was too quiet.

kara swisher

Did you not want to be a Never Trumper? You didn’t want to —

frank luntz

But I was — because I’m not a Never Trumper, because I think there are things that he did that are essential. And I think that he’s got a record — an economic record — that’s brilliant. And I applaud him for his willingness to take on China, knowing that the consequences could be his own re-election. And so there are parts of Donald Trump, of his administration, of his actions that I applaud. But again, I’m a pollster. So really, I will say this to you on this podcast, but where I stand is not really relevant. It’s my ability to read the public —

kara swisher

OK.

frank luntz

—and be willing to understand what they think and where they stand. And in reading it right now, I just know of the consequences of what we went through over the last six months. It’s going to take years to undo. And that’s my mission.

kara swisher

OK. You’re essentially saying, I like Trumpism but not Trump. I think that’s what I’m hearing. Or —

frank luntz

I don’t.

kara swisher

—I don’t like his behavior, I guess — same thing with the Facebook, didn’t like the behavior —

frank luntz

But —

kara swisher

—which is the man as far as I’m concerned.

frank luntz

Let me challenge that, because it’s not Trumpism.

kara swisher

OK.

frank luntz

It’s that there are aspects of what he did that were very important. My mission right now is to be what Joe Biden said he was going to be and hasn’t been.

kara swisher

Which is?

frank luntz

Which is to find common ground, to find unity, to find a more positive approach to our politics, and in doing so, solve these problems that politicians have decided that it is better to find the negative arguments and to tear people down than it is to find the hopeful, more optimistic, more positive arguments that bring people together.

kara swisher

All right. But that is a hallmark of the Trump administration. And after a public brawl with Trump, you effectively called for Fox News to dump Trump, which was a big deal. You got in a lot of trouble. You ended up doing some work with the last administration, though, at the same time, thanks to your relationship with Mick Mulvaney. How do you effectively square that, or navigate that, I guess is the better way?

frank luntz

The fact that you were so shocked that I could work — not you, but people — so shocked, so outraged that I could supply the Trump administration with language on spending, with language on taxes, with language on immigration, or that I could do the same thing with the Biden administration and give them language on Covid or try to find some common ground on immigration that will provide us the border security that we need and the immigration reform that we deserve. This should —

kara swisher

Ooh, that’s both of them in one sentence. I can’t believe it.

frank luntz

This should not —

kara swisher

The immigration thing you referred to, you wanted to move the Trump administration from funding border wall to border security.

frank luntz

Yes, because I know that you’ll never get Democratic support.

kara swisher

And do you think he has a chance in the next election?

frank luntz

If Donald Trump runs for president, as a Republican, he’s the odds-on favorite to win the nomination. He could never win a general election. But I can’t imagine losing a Republican primary. That’s how significant he is within the G.O.P. And yet, he’s lost all of those crossover voters that would deny him the chance to win in a general election.

kara swisher

So he will be the nominee but not win, right? At this moment.

frank luntz

I would bet on him to be the nominee. And I would bet on him losing to whatever Democratic nominee there was. [MUSIC PLAYING]

kara swisher

We’ll be back in a minute.

If you like this interview and want to hear others, follow us on your favorite podcast app. You’ll be able to catch up on “Sway” episodes you may have missed, like my conversation with Maggie Haberman. And you’ll get new ones delivered directly to you. More with Frank Luntz after the break.

These focus groups you do have worn heavily on you this year, obviously, particularly one you hosted the day before the inauguration. Let’s play a clip of that.

archived recording (frank luntz)

Give me a word or phrase to describe the United States of America the day before we have that inauguration. Harold.

archived recording (harold)

Turmoil.

archived recording (frank luntz)

Camille.

archived recording (camille)

Seeking solutions.

archived recording (frank luntz)

Jim.

archived recording (jim)

Divided.

archived recording (frank luntz)

Lisa.

archived recording (lisa)

Deceased.

archived recording (frank luntz)

Deceased. Oh, my God.

archived recording

Amen.

archived recording (frank luntz)

Stephanie.

archived recording (stephanie)

Lost.

archived recording (frank luntz)

Spencer.

archived recording (spencer)

Delusional.

archived recording (frank luntz)

This is awful.

kara swisher

Why did this focus group almost push you to the edge?

frank luntz

Because our country isn’t divided or damaged. It’s broken. It’s absolutely broken. And those words explain it. They articulate it. And I don’t have the ability to fix it. It is so bad that someone who’s spent his entire career on language and messaging, hopefully developing majorities rather than separating people, I don’t have the words to fix that. I knew how bad it was. I didn’t realize that it’s truly shattered. That’s the difference between a crack in the glass and shattered glass. Shattered glass cannot be put back together.

kara swisher

All right. Talk about these groups. Talk about why you set them up and then what has happened. Give some examples.

frank luntz

I set them up because I believe Americans should hear what other Americans are thinking and feeling. And they should not be just getting it from the elites. My biggest problem with news programs right now is that you’ve got experts talking to experts about experts, and you’ve lost 99 percent of the public who are actually affected by this, that the average American should be able to hear from the average American at least occasionally. And that is not happening. And in the 2020 campaign — it was the most obvious of all that there was something happening underneath the surface, which is the reason why Republicans won so many seats in the House while Donald Trump still got defeated by 4.5 popular in the popular vote. I choose issues that are particularly controversial because I actually want to know what the public really thinks, which is why I do immigration, I’ve done Covid. Right now, I’m looking at the spending programs of the Biden administration. I do focus groups on the division. I do focus groups even on focus groups, where I have them react to what other Americans have said and how they say it.

kara swisher

Something you’ve been doing for decades, correct?

frank luntz

For decades. But it’s never been like this. I used to walk away feeling really good. Like, this is a good conversation. These people have learned something from each other. And now I’m going to play it to the world, and they can learn. Instead, I walk away feeling sick to my stomach. And at one point, I actually said, I can’t keep doing this. From the 6th of January to about the 1st of March, I could not do a political focus group, because it wouldn’t take even a minute for the insults to start. It wouldn’t even take five minutes for these 15 or 20 people to be yelling at each other where I could not get their attention.

kara swisher

Talk to me about what sets it up, because there was one that you did where someone was trying to give information about Covid And that was really quite astonishing to me.

frank luntz

We had Tom Frieden participate at the beginning of the session, at the end of the session. And he starts by giving these vaccine-hesitant people — he starts by giving them a bunch of key facts. And they’re batting them away, one after another after another. I don’t believe that. Well, that’s what Anthony Fauci tells us. They don’t believe him. But what about the politicization? Or, the media has got an agenda. Every possible excuse, just knocking it away. We then have the politicians come up. We had Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader of the House, Brad Wenstrup, the House leader of the Doctors Caucus.

kara swisher

So these are people that they might like.

frank luntz

That they might like. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.

kara swisher

Had Covid.

frank luntz

Had Covid. And he turned out to be the best communicator because he talked about the randomness of Covid, that someone who’s healthy could end up dying. Someone who’s sick could end up surviving. And then when it goes back to Frieden, he then calls it the five facts. And he ticks them off. Number one, number two, number three, number four, number five. And that’s what did it. You had the politicians speaking emotionally. You had Frieden speaking medically. And the combination of the two is what changed people’s minds. And sure enough, of those participants, we had five of them — at least five of them have already been vaccinated. And these are people who said that they wouldn’t just one month ago.

kara swisher

So you say the solution is to make this argument personal, not political in this. But a recent poll suggests that over 40 percent of Republicans still say they do not plan to get vaccinated. Why is vaccine hesitancy playing out over political fault lines, and why are Republican men so disproportionately hesitant? Others seem to be moving in the right direction.

frank luntz

Because they believe that Donald Trump lost the election because of Covid. And they believe that he lost the election because how it was covered. And they used an example, which is fascinating: CNN had a ticker of how many people died of Covid. Fox News did not. The belief is that the virus, and now the vaccines, have been politicized and are used as a club to beat up Republicans. And that’s why Republicans are particularly attuned to this. I’ll give you an example of my own experience, which is, I went on a show on MSNBC. And on that show, there was a doctor who spent the entire part of my segment complaining and yelling at Republicans for not being vaccinated, insulting them, and essentially calling them stupid. You know that if you call someone stupid, they’re not going to cooperate.

kara swisher

What does work? There are cash payments. One-third of unvaccinated populations said a cash payment would make them more likely to get a shot. Sometimes all it takes is $100. What does this say about the stickiness of these political beliefs?

frank luntz

It means that there are priorities that can be more important than just politics. We know that people want to travel, and they’re prepared to get their vaccine if they know they have the freedom to travel. But don’t call it a vaccine passport. If you call it a vaccine passport, the right is going to say, absolutely not, because that’s more government intervention in our lives. And the left is going to say, absolutely not, because that’s something that only elite, the wealthy, and the better-educated get, and it’s not available to everyone. You call it a vaccine verification. By four to one, the public supports a vaccine verification more than a vaccine passport. It means the same thing. But if you change the words, you get a positive outcome.

kara swisher

So don’t you find it unusual, though, that for $100, they’ll change their mind, too, in some ways? How sticky are these beliefs? Or is it just about having the belief?

frank luntz

It’s about the skepticism, that you’re rewarded in a conservative community because you’re saying, I don’t trust the government. It’s about a skepticism, frankly, in the Black and brown communities that say, the government has mistreated me in the past. Why should I trust them now? What’s interesting about it is that these are groups that normally don’t agree on anything, and they don’t vote the same way. But on the hesitancy of trusting the government, within the Black community and the Trump community, both of them were very, very high. The difference is that the Black community has benefited from public education campaigns, benefited from targeted messaging right to their communities, versus the Trump hesitancy, which is condemned by the media.

kara swisher

The Republican men, essentially. So it’s because we’re not petting Republican white men enough? I don’t know about that. They get petted a lot, I find, in my life. But all right. OK. I’ll be nicer to my brother. OK. So talk —

frank luntz

He’ll appreciate it.

kara swisher

He will not. He’s not getting the vaccine. There’s nothing I can do, and I’m just — good luck with that, Frank. I’ll leave him to you. Anyway, so how is the pandemic going to affect political viewpoints for the midterm election? You said that they thought Donald Trump got dinged for the pandemic. Many people feel that’s appropriate. Many people voted that way. How is it going to affect political viewpoints for the midterm elections?

frank luntz

I don’t think it’s going to be a voting issue. I think the single biggest voting issue is going to be the economy, in general, and the spending, in particular. Our unemployment rate will be down. It will probably be relatively close to where it was before the pandemic, which is a Trump success at 3.5 percent unemployment. There’ll be more money floating in the economy. The markets are up. Real estate is going gangbusters. The question and the challenge for the G.O.P. is whether they will be able to communicate the programs where the money went. In the end, it’s actually not how high the taxes will go. This is something I try to explain to Republicans. A majority of Americans do want to raise taxes on the top 1 percent. They do want to raise taxes on corporations.

kara swisher

OK. Biden is making a big play for voters with stimulus checks, with a focus on blue-collar jobs, an infrastructure bill that will change climate-change resilience, the appeal of Joe from Scranton. You think that’s going to be successful. That’s the message you’re putting out there.

frank luntz

That will be successful unless and until the Republicans are able to focus on the specifics of where the money went. If they’re able to do that, the fact that it is not what the public thinks of when it comes to infrastructure, the idea of paying off people to buy electric cars, the idea that if you register with a union, you actually can get additional government funding — this is not infrastructure. When the public learns the details behind all of this, they’re going to be mad as hell. But if they don’t, then Biden is going to benefit from it. Absolutely.

kara swisher

Who are you going to work for next? Who would you work for if you could pick anyone?

frank luntz

You know what? There are a number of people, but I’ll say one just because he’s been prominent in the news. Someone like a Tim Scott because he’s emotional and he speaks from the heart, Chris Christie because he says it like it is, a Ben Sasse because he’s brilliant, Kristi Noem because she knows what it is to lead, Mike Pence because he’s a moral individual and because he’s being attacked by Trump. There are a number of people that I’m watching for 2024. Right now, my project, as I hang up with you, is education, is to try to figure out ways to fix our schools, because none of this is going to matter if we continue to produce kids who are not ready for college career or real life.

kara swisher

That is a fair point. So you doubt you will work for Trump again.

frank luntz

There’s no way — well, I never worked for him in the past, so —

kara swisher

Well, giving him advice on stuff.

frank luntz

But again, it was, I was helpful to Mick Mulvaney because he’s a friend of mine. But Trump had no interest in what I had to say. Trump had no interest in my knowledge. Trump thinks I’m an idiot. And he said so publicly. And I carry that —

kara swisher

But that’s all right. It’s a big group. It’s a big group.

frank luntz

I carry that as a badge of honor.

kara swisher

It’s a lot of people.

frank luntz

I’ll say this, and you can quote this. Donald Trump thinks Frank Luntz is an idiot. I’m fine with that.

kara swisher

Well, then, there we are. [MUSIC PLAYING] “Sway” is a production of New York Times Opinion. It’s produced by Nayeema Raza, Blakeney Schick, Heba Elorbany, Matt Kwong, and Daphne Chen; edited by Nayeema Raza and Paula Szuchman with original music by Isaac Jones, mixing by Erick Gomez, and fact-checking by Kate Sinclair and Ben Phelan. Special thanks to Shannon Busta, Liriel Higa, and Kristin Lin. If you’re in a podcast app already, you know how to get your podcasts, so follow this one. If you’re listening on The Times website and want to get each new episode of “Sway” delivered to you with an application to sublet Frank Luntz’s spare room, download any podcast app and search for “Sway” and follow the show. We release every Monday and Thursday. Thanks for listening. But before you go, we’ve got an event coming up for Times subscribers. I’ll be debating my fellow hosts from Opinion podcast, Jane Coaston and Ezra Klein, as well as columnist Farhad Manjoo about the merits and dangers of cancel culture. Comedian Trevor Noah will be weighing in on the subject, too. It’ll be on Wednesday, May 12. Times subscribers can RSVP at nytimes.com/cancelculture.

Donald Trump isn’t back on Facebook … yet. The platform’s oversight board (set up by Facebook as a “Supreme Court” to which it could punt difficult decisions) upheld a ban on Trump’s account. But the board also said indefinite suspension was “not appropriate.” It gave the company six months to make a final decision on whether Trump can ever return. In short: The court Mark Zuckerberg set up to hide behind has just passed the buck back to Mark Zuckerberg.

[You can listen to this episode of “Sway” on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, Amazon Music, Google or wherever you get your podcasts.]

While Trump awaits his fate (again), he’s unveiled a platform of his own. Well, it’s more like a glorified blog. But it will surely appeal to millions.

The last time Trump had a social media megaphone, he helped usher in lies, conspiracy theories and the deadly attack at the Capitol in January. So his new website opens up a can of worms for a Republican Party that is already braced for — and embroiled in — infighting as it charts a path for 2022 and 2024.

The guest on this episode of “Sway” is Frank Luntz, the veteran Republican pollster and strategist who shot to fame with his Fox News focus groups. Luntz says Trump has no one but himself to blame for losing his social media status and the presidency as well as the Republican majority in Congress. He’s got some predictions for Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney, some frustrations about the term “vaccine passports” — and some thoughts for Tucker Carlson.

(A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)

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Credit...Illustration by The New York Times; photograph via Frank Luntz

Thoughts? Email us at sway@nytimes.com.

“Sway” is produced by Nayeema Raza, Blakeney Schick, Heba Elorbany, Matt Kwong and Daphne Chen, and edited by Nayeema Raza and Paula Szuchman; fact-checking by Kate Sinclair; music and sound design by Isaac Jones; mixing by Erick Gomez. Special thanks to Ben Phelan, Kristin Lin, Shannon Busta and Liriel Higa.

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