56 Democrats outraised GOP incumbents. Here's where it could make a difference.

Democrats

$146 million raised from April 1 to June 30

Republicans

$102 million raised from April 1 to June 30

The latest fundraising numbers for House races are in, and for the second time this year, Democrats outraised Republicans. Of the 59 challengers who outraised their incumbent opponent — 56 are Democrats and only three are Republicans.

Democrats

56 outraised incumbent

Republicans

3 outraised incumbent

Democratic challengers are ahead of where Republicans were in 2010. In 2010, 44 incumbent Democrats lagged behind; now it’s 56 incumbent Republicans trailing their Democratic opponent. Republicans flipped 64 seats in 2010 — 22 of which the GOP candidate outraised a Democratic incumbent at this point in the election cycle.

Let's look at those 56 races

In some races, the difference is a few thousand dollars; in others, it’s millions. But not all races in which Democrats outpace the incumbent are competitive.

We’ve grouped races using the Cook Political Report’s July 2018 House race ratings to show where an influx of money to a Democratic challenger could make a difference, or at the very least, signal where Democrats hope to pick up a seat. We also highlighted races in which Democratic challengers have more cash on hand than the incumbent, currently 14 of the 56 races. Typically, incumbents have more money at their disposal than their opponents.

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17 GOP Toss-ups

Things look good for Democrats

There are 17 extremely competitive races in which the Democratic challenger outraised the GOP incumbent. And at this point, there are only 20 toss-up races with a GOP incumbent. The other six races involve either open or vacant seats.

Democratic challengers outraised the incumbent in 17 of 20 toss-up races and in five races, have more cash on hand than their opponent.

NOTE: The AP has not called every race in California. Our chart shows the Democratic challenger who outraised the GOP incumbent by the largest margin.

1 Race could go blue

A new map may help Dems in PA-17

There is one race that leans Democratic and has a Democratic challenger who outraised the GOP incumbent: PA-17.

Earlier this year, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court released a new congressional map, shaking up the race dynamics. Nowhere is this more true than in PA-17, where newly minted Rep. Conor Lamb (D) faces Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) in a redrawn district — the only House district in which two incumbents are running against each other. (Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court ordered a redraw of the state’s congressional map due to gerrymandering.) Lamb has started to pull away from Rothfus in at least one poll, but we’re still months away from the general.

9 Races lean GOP

Don't read too much into PA-01

There are another nine races that lean Republican in which the Democratic challenger outraised the GOP incumbent. The difference in these races ranges from nearly $50,000 to $3.8 million, and in two races, the Democratic challengers have more cash on hand.

The multimillion dollar fundraising gap is because Democratic challenger Scott Wallace is a self-funded millionaire — not because of grass-roots support.

12 Races Likely GOP

Democrats could still win a few

There are 12 races in likely Republican districts in which the Democratic challenger outraised the GOP incumbent. And in three of these races, the challenger finished the quarter with more money on hand.

These races are in districts that will likely go Republican, but some districts favor Republicans only by a few points. And in CA-21, the Cook Partisan Voter Index shows the district leans Democratic by 5 points — but Rep. David Valadao (R) has a history of running well in this district.

17 Races Solidly GOP

It's unlikely Democrats win, but watch AZ-08

There are 17 races in solidly Republican districts in which the Democratic challenger outraised the GOP incumbent. In two of these races, the challenger also finished the quarter with more money on hand.

Rep. Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-08) won the special election in April, but this hasn’t stopped Hiral Tipirneni from preparing for a rematch this fall. It’s unlikely Democrats flip seats in these GOP strongholds, but fundraising has been very close in some races.

CORRECTION: In GA-07, we listed David Kim as the Democratic challenger because he outraised the incumbent Rep. Rob Woodall (R) by the largest margin. Carolyn Bordeaux won the Democratic nomination in a runoff on July 24th. She outraised Woodall by $196,029. We have updated our chart to reflect her win.